Predictable so far - for Norwich

Will he? won't he? in an uninspiring and largely predictable week the only real item of interest is the continuing disarray of the Labour Party over the by-election.  the national Party, we know, would prefer to wait as long as possible and hold all its by-elections together for obvious tactical reasons.  Unfortunately for London, the local Party doesn't want to play ball and Harriet was met by a resounding vote for the by-election to be called immediately.  

Sophistry around not wanting to be without an MP over the summer (they really want a Tory MP???) and not allowing the Greens to build on their European and Local Government success can't disguise the fact that it was really a two-finger gesture from a still seething local Party.  Sunday's selection meeting will be fascinating!

Meanwhile young Chloe continues to age as her national minders continue their relentless pursuit of the record for summer visits by shadow cabinet members to one constituency; and faces another visit by Cameron. The Green's predictably picked Rupert as their candidate, a safe if uninspiring choice whilst the local Lib Dems obviously decided they didn't want to win (or wanted a plausible excuse for losing) by picking scary April.  I suppose I should exempt Clegg from the choice as he upset the local party in a desperate 'anyone but April ( and preferably famous)' search.  Already with two visits, he will be back, and it will be interesting to see how he gets on with the locals.

Predictably the Lib Dems are writing to everyone asking for a clean campaign, whilst putting out a press release that describes Rupert as an extremist and claiming that only they can beat the Tories.  Even more predictably, Tory blogger Iain Dale is taking an interest in the by-election from the safe distance of London, sustained by local party insider tittle tattle.  

Sadly it does look as if the collapsing Labour vote will be split between Greens and Lib Dems, leaving the Tories to sneak through the middle.  There is hope in that the Tories clearly don't have the candidate they would have chosen for a by-election, and neither Rupert or April are very appealing locally.  A good charismatic independent could yet shock them all.

The phoney war

End of week 1 and the Tories continue to set the pace. Young Chloe is getting around the constituency for photo opportunities with more mature shadow ministers, and Nick Clegg followed Cameron in 'meeting the public' at a local High School. At least the school was actually in the constituency this time, and he didn't try out a cod German accent - although claiming that 'thinking about a holiday on the Broads sometime' qualifies as a 'local connection' was bizarre, even by the Lib Dem standards! Like Cameron and the Tories they are happier to make the by-election a negative campaign against Brown than to put forward anything positive. As the local rag has observed:

"Yet it seems party strategists for both Mr Clegg and Mr Cameron feel that this by-election will be part of a bigger debate about the future direction of this country. Given Norwich and Norfolk's reputation for doing different, I wonder if they may have got that wrong."

Meanwhile the Greens seem paralysed by their own processes and their campaigning naivety is shining through. Presumably they won't compete with leafleting on environmental grounds, and any comment seems dependent on finding a candidate. The Adrian's have ruled themselves out of standing, leaving Rupert to be coy and toy with the idea. If they could get there act together (and PLEASE, don't select Rupert!) they would have a good chance. They gained the largest share of the Euro election vote in Norwich, and picked up a few County Council seats in North Norwich (including the poor candidate for Mile Cross who, according to party rumour, only stood as a paper candidate and didn't want to be elected). Despite this they have left unchallenged young Chloe's silly leaflet with its sub SATS bar chart showing how only the Tories can challenge Labour. Sort out a sensible candidate and get a campaign going , and they would be a good option for even Labour loyalists wanting to make a gesture to the national party.

As for Labour, the national party has sent Harriet along this weekend to stiffen their resolve. I guess she will make optimistic noises (well, you have to, don't you) but there are no credible local candidate options ( under the circumstances, standing will automatically remove credibility) and they will be reduced to importing party workers if they want to do any campaigning for a national imposition. Realistically, all Labour can do is look to minimise the damage and call all the outstanding by-elections together as late as possible (October?), hoping the other parties get bored. They will all soon be on their summer holidays soon anyway, leaving the way open for a motley collection of independents who will be happy to regard campaigning in Norwich as their holiday.

Here's the dilemma .........

Labour has no chance at the by-election: the Labour vote will fragment with Ian Gibson's cross-party personal vote reverting to type and even loyalists punishing the party for de-selecting him. So who will benefit from Labours meltdown?

Normally you'd put your money on the Tories with Norwich North now including some Broadland suburbs. Two glossy colour leaflets and a visit by Cameron within a week of Ian's resignation certainly points to their confidence.

But these aren't normal times - the glossy leaflets were actually one delivered twice and Cameron rather spoilt his appearance with a bizarre 'joke' in which he implied ID cards would mysteriously transform the Norfolk plod into Nazi's. Another possible handicap is the candidate, young Chloe, who was probably originally selected to contrast with Ian's more mature appearance. She seems to share the same shaky grasp of history that afflicts Cameron's Tory Party, although with the possible excuse that she was a baby during Thatchers worst excesses. At least her hair colour is more natural than the shallow chancellors'.

Here's the deal

Despite strong support from the local party and constituents a well respected MP (Ian Gibson) has been hauled before a small Labour Party committee and told he is not eligible to stand as a candidate for the Party.  Dazed and devastated he resigns immediately, triggering an as yet to be called by-election.

In the fevered political climate this means Norwich North will be saturated by candidates and their supporters, as well as by the media and commentators.  Over the next few weeks we will have a lot of people telling us what we think, and a lot more trying to divine what we will do on polling day.  

The first visits from Cameron have taken place, and the first leaflets with their predictably dubious stats have dropped through letter boxes.  As the canvassers and media trip ove themselves and a blizzard of paper descends on us, this blog intends to provide a citizen insiders commentary from inside the goldfish bowl.