Here's the dilemma .........

Labour has no chance at the by-election: the Labour vote will fragment with Ian Gibson's cross-party personal vote reverting to type and even loyalists punishing the party for de-selecting him. So who will benefit from Labours meltdown?

Normally you'd put your money on the Tories with Norwich North now including some Broadland suburbs. Two glossy colour leaflets and a visit by Cameron within a week of Ian's resignation certainly points to their confidence.

But these aren't normal times - the glossy leaflets were actually one delivered twice and Cameron rather spoilt his appearance with a bizarre 'joke' in which he implied ID cards would mysteriously transform the Norfolk plod into Nazi's. Another possible handicap is the candidate, young Chloe, who was probably originally selected to contrast with Ian's more mature appearance. She seems to share the same shaky grasp of history that afflicts Cameron's Tory Party, although with the possible excuse that she was a baby during Thatchers worst excesses. At least her hair colour is more natural than the shallow chancellors'.