A bleak choice

Despite a poor candidate and the dreadful treatment of Ian Gibson, there does seem to be some movement back to Labour as we near polling day. It won't be enough to save the seat, but the prospect of young Chloe and a Tory MP has started to focus a few minds on how best to prevent it.

The Greens effectively blew their chance by persuading a perfectly good candidate (Adrian Holmes) that he didn't really want to stand and choosing Rupert instead, and then running a lacklustre campaign.

The LibDems have been dreadful, with scary April manipulated by the LibDem by-election machine into claims that have even driven the sober citizens of Aylsham to write into the local papers and complain about (her claimed single-handed saving of the local hospital came as news to local campaigners).

None of the independents have had the charisma or wider support of a Martin Bell, and UKIP have managed to generate the nearest thing to a joke locally with 'Don't mingle with Glen Tingle' adorning his third Reich era posters, undermining the Aryan poster boy impression they otherwise give.

In face of all this the Tories have given it their all, Cameron has made his fourth visit today and the area is flooded with party workers delivering leaflets. Cameron's obvious desire to specifically get Chloe elected does nothing to reduce the local impression of her as a Westminster insider. Her much vaunted Norfolk background has also aggravated a few locally to whom rural Norfolk and landed gentry might as well inhabit another planet. Working 'tirelessly' in the constituency since January 2008 doesn't really cut it either.

I suppose it could be a clever Tory strategy as it is in their interest for the Labour vote not to collapse and coalesce around one of the alternatives. Sadly, lessons of history aren't much in evidence in the Lidl queue and by this time next week we'll be a year ahead of the rest of the country as the Tories manage to neatly side-step their historic culpability for today's crisis.

Photo-op's and Parties past

The war of the photo-op continues with more ministerial visits lined up, and presumably shadow ministers as well. The local media generally oblige by providing coverage, but only for known national names - this has the effect of marginalising the remaining parties competing in the election, in fact even the Lib Dems can suffer on this score, so they keep sending Nick Clegg - guaranteed a sympathetic interview from Archant and the BBC.

The BBC did manage a BOGOF today, with Charles Clarke hijacking yet another Cameron visit to give him a letter about Andy Coulson. The danger with this stunt is that your enemy retaliates and start to hijack your photo-opportunities - with two weeks to go it could yet get very silly with the Loony's and other Independents yet to start their photo-op hijacking campaign. Perhaps anticipation of this is why a lot of the visits tend to be secret, with only the organisations concerned and the press tipped off in advance.

Rumours about the past of candidates continues, with Ostrowski doing nothing to improve his standing and image by conceding that his much vaunted UEA past included time spent in the Conservative Students Society, and even standing for them as a candidate in NUS elections. Rupert on the other hand used to be a LibDem - hardly a surprise, especially given the venom those clean campaigning LibDem's have extended to him.

Meanwhile Mr Tickle the UKIP candidate denies a rumoured past association with the National Front - but did he really need to trot out the old 'some of my best friends are ......' defence? His posters, advertising and leaflets all continue to prominently feature his picture as an Aryan pin-up boy.

TV appearance by 4 of the candidates last night, 30 seconds each on education. In order of competence in delivery 1. young Chloe, clearly showing how well groomed she has been by Tory Central Office; 2. Rupert, sounding like a Rupert but stringing coherent sentences together, 3. Scary April (but almost as vacuous in content as young Chloe) 4 - by a long way, Ostrowski continuing to demonstrate support for the 'ironic gesture' theory behind his selection. Try getting any sentence from him that doesn't include the words 'SureStart centres'.

Also on TV last night was Harriet Harman, trying hard to smile and talk through gritted teeth. It does seem that Labour nationally really thought they could remove Ian from the candidates list and that he'd go quietly at the next election. I suppose if you are in the Westminster bubble and know nothing of either the person or the constituency you might just be able to delude yourself that at 70 and with a heart condition, Ian could retire gracefully at the next election and be presented as a sign that the party was being 'tough' on the expenses scandal. Instead they have a by-election they are going to get slaughtered at, a very disgruntled local party and just look pathetic bullies when Ian's expenses are compared with others against whom no action has been taken (Mandy, anyone?)

What campaign?

Ever get the impression no one is taking this campaign seriously? A warm weather weekend and the date now known, yet you will be hard pushed to find a campaign by anyone. A few house posters have started to appear (Greens and Liberal Democrats), alongside the UKIP billboards (dominated by a head and shoulders of their 'BNP pin-up', an impression aided by easy facial hair defacement) but the only party workers spotted in a weekend wander were leafleteers.

The weekend leaflet count through our letter box was 1 each for Greens, Liberal Democrats and an interesting Independent candidate, Craig Murray. Nothing yet heard from the Labour Party and the Tory interventions were the same glossy leaflet put through the letterbox twice immediately after Ian's resignation. I'm sure things will warm up, but when a campaign relies on leaflets and photo-opportunities it means it is short of people on the ground.

The Lib Dem leaflet was a useful reminder of why I can't vote for them, nasty and snidy - and then there were the scary pictures of their candidate..... they will need to bus in a lot of door-knocking bodies to stand any chance.

Ian Gibson anyone? An interesting poll shows he would attract 40% if he stood as an independent - perhaps the same pollsters that showed Labour on 30% and only 5% behind the Tories. (see Michael Crick's blog for more on these)